If only we knew! WE DID!

Published October 4, 2022 by Nan Mykel

What is the current state of climate change 2022?

Some of this may seem old to you; it is!

The 2018–2022 global mean temperature average (based on data up to May or June 2022) is estimated to be 1.17 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 average. A La Niña event has had a slight cooling effect on temperatures in 2021/22 but this will be temporary.5 days ago

United in Science: We are Heading in the Wrong Direction – UNFCCC

https://unfccc.int › news › united-in-science-we-are-headi…

: What is the current state of climate change 2022?

What did the 2022 IPCC report say?

The IPCC report 2022 warned that the world is set to reach the 1.5ºC level within the next two decades and said that only the most drastic cuts in carbon emissions from now would help prevent an environmental disaster.Jul 4, 2022

IPCC climate report 2022 summary: The key findings

The IPCC report 2022 warned that the world is set to reach the 1.5ºC level within the next two decades and said that only the most drastic cuts in carbon emissions from now would help prevent an environmental disaster.Jul 4, 2022

taking drastic action now and what would happen if no action was taken. Taking the high-carbon pathway, the worst of the scenarios, would see global temperatures rise by more than 4ºC by the end of the century. To add some perspective to that scenario, the world has not seen temperature increases of more than 2.5ºC over such a short space of time for more than 3 million years.

The latest IPCC climate reportThe third volume of the 6th IPCC assessment report that was launched on April 2022, is the result of a collaboration of 270 scientists from more than 60 different countries. This volume is only part of the sixth assessment report. The full version will be published in September 2022.

Humans are the main drivers of climate change

The last time the IPCC published its climate update, there was a link between human activity and climate change. This time, the group concludes they have high confidence that humans are the main drivers behind issues such as more intense heat waves, glaciers melting, and our oceans getting warmer. Studies have shown that events such as the heat wave in Siberia in 2020 and the extreme heat seen across Asia in 2016 would likely not have happened had humans not burned so much fossil fuel.

Indeed the IPCC report 2022 says: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land”. That should be a stark enough warning to all of us to make the changes we need to in our lives and start recycling, and thinking about using green energy to power our homes, such as solar energy or wind energy.

Upon release of the report, politicians and commentators gave their reaction, none more powerfully than by UN Secretary General, António Guterres, who said:

IPCC Working Group 1 Report is a code red for humanityThe alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.   From <https://climate.selectra.com/en/news/ipcc-report-2022>

For the first time ever, the IPCC dedicated a chapter in its report to short-lived climate forces including aerosols, methane, and particulate matter. The previous edition of the IPCC report outlined safe levels of methane, of which we have well surpassed at this point. In fact, methane levels, which are largely caused by agricultural farming, oil and gas operations, and abandoned coal mines, are at their highest for 800,000 years.

While much of the discussion of emission reductions focuses on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – by switching to an electric or hybrid car, for example – methane actually has a global warming impact 84 times higher over a 20-year period. The IPCC report 2022 said more focus must be placed on methane emissions, which would help reverse climate change and improve air quality around the world.

We are close to reaching irreversible tipping points

Drastic cuts in emissions are needed to stop climate change – something we already know and that governments and businesses around the world are already working towards. However, the report warned that if not enough is done, the world is close to reaching tipping points on climate change, meaning that we will have gone beyond the point where the damage can be repaired.

The IPCC report 2022 highlighted two key examples of what could happen:

deforestation

  1. Forests could start to die: As temperatures continue to rise, forests could begin to die off. Trees play a key role in absorbing CO2, so if deforestation occurs, and forests stop growing, it would have disastrous consequences on the environment;
  2. Sea levels will continue to rise: As global warming occurs, ice caps melt at a rapid pace, meaning sea levels rise, and towns and cities around coastal areas are in danger of being swallowed up by the oceans. Research published in the Nature Journal suggests that if nothing is done, sea levels could rise by more than a metre by 2100 and by 15 metres over the next 500 years.

Did You Know That? More Etceteras

Published October 2, 2022 by Nan Mykel

By 

Meet Austria’s young marmot whisperer. Eight-year-old Matteo Walch’s friendship with a clan of Alpine animals has spanned more than half his lifetime.  “When we come, they run straight to him,” Matteo’s mother, Michaela Walch, a mathematics teacher and amateur photographer, told TODAY.com.

The mother-and-son team have been traveling from their home in Innsbruck to Hohe Tauern National Park in Grossglockner to spend time with the large ground squirrels since Matteo was just 3 years old. Like a horse whisperer or dog whisperer, the schoolboy has an uncanny ability to interact with the normally skittish wild animals — even greeting them nose to nose and having them climb in his lap

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The new approved covid shot has now been authorized in the U.S. for a full month, but nearly half of adults have heard little or nothing about it, according to a new report.  (Yesterday I got my new “covid” shot after filling out papers in an empty waiting room at our health department, along with the strong version of the flu shot.)

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The first recorded instance of a talking parrot dates to the fifth century B.C. in Greece. The Greek historian, Ctesias of Cnidus, wrote about a talking Plum-headed parakeet called Bittacus.

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They counted Earth’s ants. It’s a big number.  A team of ecologists released the results of a new global census for ants: There are 20 quadrillion — that’s 20 with 15 zeros. Ants outnumber humans at least 2.5 million to 1.  Their abundance is a boon to ecosystems: They spread seeds, churn up soil and speed up decomposition. They forage and hunt and get eaten. “I would argue most ecosystems would simply collapse without ants,” said Patrick Schultheiss, an ecologist.

Incidentally, apparently ants receive different DNA instructions than humans.  The book ANTS –or is it THE ANT or maybe  just ANT –by the late esteemed Edmund O. Wilson is a real page-turner, if it’s me who is reading.

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I just realized that Mother Earth is a whore, and corporations are her “Johns,” otherwise known as pimps.  Corporations are using, abusing and profiting from her.  I predict she’ll take them with her when she dies.

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While checking on…(it’s ANT–)  I came across Edward O. Wilson’s book Half Earth, the overview of which I found on Thriftbooks:

Book Overview

In order to stave off the mass extinction of species, including our own, we must move swiftly to preserve the biodiversity of our planet, says Edward O. Wilson in his most impassioned book to date. Half-Earth argues that the situation facing us is too large to be solved piecemeal and proposes a solution commensurate with the magnitude of the problem: dedicate fully half the surface of the Earth to nature.If we are to undertake such an ambitious endeavor, we first must understand just what the biosphere is, why it’s essential to our survival, and the manifold threats now facing it. In doing so, Wilson describes how our species, in only a mere blink of geological time, became the architects and rulers of this epoch and outlines the consequences of this that will affect all of life, both ours and the natural world, far into the future. Half-Earth provides an enormously moving and naturalistic portrait of just what is being lost when we clip twigs and eventually whole braches of life’s family tree. In elegiac prose, Wilson documents the many ongoing extinctions that are imminent, paying tribute to creatures great and small, not the least of them the two Sumatran rhinos whom he encounters in captivity. Uniquely, Half-Earth considers not only the large animals and star species of plants but also the millions of invertebrate animals and microorganisms that, despite being overlooked, form the foundations of Earth’s ecosystems.In stinging language, he avers that the biosphere does not belong to us and addresses many fallacious notions such as the idea that ongoing extinctions can be balanced out by the introduction of alien species into new ecosystems or that extinct species might be brought back through cloning. This includes a critique of the anthropocenists, a fashionable collection of revisionist environmentalists who believe that the human species alone can be saved through engineering and technology.Despite the Earth’s parlous condition, Wilson is no doomsayer, resigned to fatalism. Defying prevailing conventional wisdom, he suggests that we still have time to put aside half the Earth and identifies actual spots where Earth’s biodiversity can still be reclaimed. Suffused with a profound Darwinian understanding of our planet’s fragility, Half-Earth reverberates with an urgency like few other books, but it offers an attainable goal that we can strive for on behalf of all life.

Where’s the Battle?

Published October 1, 2022 by Nan Mykel

I wish the whole world could hear this, including our people, of course! If it were briefer I’d want to hang it on the wall.

Kate Lunsford

We live in a quarrelsome world. Everyone wants to fight, to express their power, values, opinion. People are offensive, we are offensive to others, and no one wants to be responsible for the anger and dissolution dividing all of us. It seems easier to punch it out, yell it out, fight it out. It’s hard not to take up an attitude to protect and defend. It is easy to get angry and yell, to put someone in their place, give them a piece of our mind, and it feels good at the time.

Everyone wants to fight, but exactly where is the battle? Someone cut me off on the road, do I jeopardize their life and my own? When kids won’t listen, or spouse doesn’t understand, or the boss is a jerk, do I put them down, write them off, spread rumors, make assumptions, hold grudges? We want to teach…

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PLANETARY BOUNDARIES?

Published October 1, 2022 by Nan Mykel

In early May 2022, many of us were peacefully basking in the sun, while the sixth planetary boundary was being broken, met with general indifference. 😎 This means that six planetary boundaries out of nine have now been crossed. The figure was updated in early May by researchers and scientists.Jul 27, 2022

What’s that?  Says who?  Why?  Current Status  Resource for

IIn 2009, Johan Rockström led a group of 28 internationally renowned scientists to identify 9 key processes that regulate the stability and resilience of our planet. They proposed quantitative ‘planetary boundaries’ within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come.Jul 29, 2021

AHA!  So that’s where the postings about the importance of biodiversity come from….

Stratospheric ozone depletion
The stratospheric ozone layer in the atmosphere filters out ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun. If this layer decreases, increasing amounts of UV radiation will reach ground level. This can cause a higher incidence of skin cancer in humans as well as damage to terrestrial and marine biological systems.

The appearance of the Antarctic ozone hole was proof that increased concentrations of anthropogenic ozone-depleting chemical substances, interacting with polar stratospheric clouds, had passed a threshold and moved the Antarctic stratosphere into a new regime.

Fortunately, because of the actions taken as a result of the Montreal Protocol, we appear to be on the path that will allow us to stay within this boundary.

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Loss of biosphere integrity (biodiversity loss and extinctions)
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of 2005 concluded that changes to ecosystems due to human activities were more rapid in the past 50 years than at any time in human history, increasing the risks of abrupt and irreversible changes.

The main drivers of change are the demand for food, water, and natural resources, causing severe biodiversity loss and leading to changes in ecosystem services. These drivers are either steady, showing no evidence of declining over time, or are increasing in intensity. The current high rates of ecosystem damage and extinction can be slowed by efforts to protect the integrity of living systems (the biosphere), enhancing habitat, and improving connectivity between ecosystems while maintaining the high agricultural productivity that humanity needs.

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Chemical pollution and the release of novel entities
Emissions of toxic and long-lived substances such as synthetic organic pollutants, heavy metal compounds and radioactive materials represent some of the key human-driven changes to the planetary environment. These compounds can have potentially irreversible effects on living organisms and on the physical environment (by affecting atmospheric processes and climate).

Even when the uptake and bioaccumulation of chemical pollution is at sub-lethal levels for organisms, the effects of reduced fertility and the potential of permanent genetic damage can have severe effects on ecosystems far removed from the source of the pollution. For example, persistent organic compounds have caused dramatic reductions in bird populations and impaired reproduction and development in marine mammals.

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Climate Change
Recent evidence suggests that the Earth, now passing 390 ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere, has already transgressed the planetary boundary and is approaching several Earth system thresholds.

We have reached a point at which the loss of summer polar sea-ice is almost certainly irreversible. This is one example of a well-defined threshold above which rapid physical feedback mechanisms can drive the Earth system into a much warmer state with sea levels metres higher than present. The weakening or reversal of terrestrial carbon sinks, for example through the on-going destruction of the world’s rainforests, is another potential tipping point, where climate-carbon cycle feedbacks accelerate Earth’s warming and intensify the climate impacts.

A major question is how long we can remain over this boundary before large, irreversible changes become unavoidable.  

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Ocean acidification
Around a quarter of the CO2 that humanity emits into the atmosphere is ultimately dissolved in the oceans. Here it forms carbonic acid, altering ocean chemistry and decreasing the pH of the surface water. This increased acidity reduces the amount of available carbonate ions, an essential ‘building block’ used by many marine species for shell and skeleton formation.

Beyond a threshold concentration, this rising acidity makes it hard for organisms such as corals and some shellfish and plankton species to grow and survive. Losses of these species would change the structure and dynamics of ocean ecosystems and could potentially lead to drastic reductions in fish stocks. Compared to pre-industrial times, surface ocean acidity has already increased by 30 percent.

Unlike most other human impacts on the marine environment, which are often local in scale, the ocean acidification boundary has ramifications for the whole planet. It is also an example of how tightly interconnected the boundaries are, since atmospheric CO2 concentration is the underlying controlling variable for both the climate and the ocean acidification boundaries, although they are defined in terms of different Earth system thresholds.

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Freshwater consumption and the global hydrological cycle
The freshwater cycle is strongly affected by climate change and its boundary is closely linked to the climate boundary, yet human pressure is now the dominant driving force determining the functioning and distribution of global freshwater systems.

The consequences of human modification of water bodies include both global-scale river flow changes and shifts in vapour flows arising from land use change. These shifts in the hydrological system can be abrupt and irreversible. Water is becoming increasingly scarce – by 2050 about half a billion people are likely to be subject to water-stress, increasing the pressure to intervene in water systems.

A water boundary related to consumptive freshwater use and environmental flow requirements has been proposed to maintain the overall resilience of the Earth system and to avoid the risk of ‘cascading’ local and regional thresholds.

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Land system change
Land is converted to human use all over the planet. Forests, grasslands, wetlands and other vegetation types have primarily been converted to agricultural land. This land-use change is one driving force behind the serious reductions in biodiversity, and it has impacts on water flows and on the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus and other important elements.

While each incident of land cover change occurs on a local scale, the aggregated impacts can have consequences for Earth system processes on a global scale. A boundary for human changes to land systems needs to reflect not just the absolute quantity of land, but also its function, quality and spatial distribution. Forests play a particularly important role in controlling the linked dynamics of land use and climate, and is the focus of the boundary for land system change.

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Nitrogen and phosphorus flows to the biosphere and oceans
The biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus have been radically changed by humans as a result of many industrial and agricultural processes. Nitrogen and phosphorus are both essential elements for plant growth, so fertilizer production and application is the main concern.

Human activities now convert more atmospheric nitrogen into reactive forms than all of the Earth’s terrestrial processes combined. Much of this new reactive nitrogen is emitted to the atmosphere in various forms rather than taken up by crops. When it is rained out, it pollutes waterways and coastal zones or accumulates in the terrestrial biosphere. Similarly, a relatively small proportion of phosphorus fertilizers applied to food production systems is taken up by plants; much of the phosphorus mobilized by humans also ends up in aquatic systems. These can become oxygen-starved as bacteria consume the blooms of algae that grow in response to the high nutrient supply.

A significant fraction of the applied nitrogen and phosphorus makes its way to the sea, and can push marine and aquatic systems across ecological thresholds of their own. One regional-scale example of this effect is the decline in the shrimp catch in the Gulf of Mexico’s ‘dead zone’ caused by fertilizer transported in rivers from the US Midwest.

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Atmospheric aerosol loading
An atmospheric aerosol planetary boundary was proposed primarily because of the influence of aerosols on Earth’s climate system. Through their interaction with water vapour, aerosols play a critically important role in the hydrological cycle affecting cloud formation and global-scale and regional patterns of atmospheric circulation, such as the monsoon systems in tropical regions. They also have a direct effect on climate, by changing how much solar radiation is reflected or absorbed in the atmosphere.

Humans change the aerosol loading by emitting atmospheric pollution (many pollutant gases condense into droplets and particles), and also through land-use change that increases the release of dust and smoke into the air. Shifts in climate regimes and monsoon systems have already been seen in highly polluted environments, giving a quantifiable regional measure for an aerosol boundary.

A further reason for an aerosol boundary is that aerosols have adverse effects on many living organisms. Inhaling highly polluted air causes roughly 800,000 people to die prematurely each year. The toxicological and ecological effects of aerosols may thus relate to other Earth system thresholds. However, the behaviour of aerosols in the atmosphere is extremely complex, depending on their chemical composition and their geographical location and height in the atmosphere.

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_A resouce for information:

ttps://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries/the-nine-planetary

Crying and Frightened Mother Earth

Published September 30, 2022 by Nan Mykel

 

 

Along with political lies and stone-deafness to her tears. our Mother Earth has become frantic.  We speak of the oceans being our mother, but they’re our step-mother.  Nature, personified by the Mother Earth metaphor, is our real mother.  She’s so sad and frightened  (like the fecund women in abortion-prohibited states) that she doesn’t know what to do (like the old woman who lived in a shoe with so many children…).

Her first responders are brave, but so far unable to rouse the Emergency Rescue Squads needed to keep her alive. (The head of the World Bank,  recently asked whether the burning of oil, gas and coal was driving climate change, refused to answer.)

Current heartaches:  At this very minute, extremely destructive hurricane Ian is roaring north across the United States.  “Hurricane Ian is going to be a storm that we talk about for decades,” administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency Deanne Criswell said yesterday.  [If Mother Earth is still alive in decades.]

Earlier in the month Pakistan’s climate minister called the flooding in his country “Biblical.”   Greenpeace  shared videos in which a central Pakistani hotel crumbled in the duration of a  “TikTok.”  

U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres visited Pakistan and called the climate crisis a “code red for humanity,”  He said that he hadn’t seen this scale of climate change  in his life (he is 76.)  The areas underwater in Pakistan are larger than Britain

Keep your eyes open on the current destruction by hurricane Ian.

The nine planetary boundaries:  In addition to the causes of climate change, a planetary boundary framework originated in 2009 to define required limits on human activities to prevent collapse of vital Earth operating systems. They include biodiversity loss, freshwater, air pollution, climate change, high phosphorus and nitrogen levels, ocean acidity, land use changes, ozone layer decay, and contamination by human-made chemicals.

 

TRUTH BE TOLD MESSAGE FROM KEITH

Published September 30, 2022 by Nan Mykel

Keith Wilson

As a former Republican and now independent voter, it saddens me that to be a legitimate Republican, one has to endorse untruthful pronouncements by the losing former president and his sycophants. I don’t mind people espousing conservative ideas, but I do expect them to be truthful. Governing is hard enough when using facts, but nigh impossible when making decisions off lies.

Truth be told, I expected this behavior from the former president as that has long been his modus operandi, but what I am frustrated by is his sycophants who perpetuate untruths, even when they know they are lies. The former president lost the election and cannot prove otherwise even after spending a lot of other people’s money to do so. He also instigated an insurrection against Congress putting people in danger. And, that does not include his mishandling of classified information and alleged financial fraud at his company.We deserve better than those who are purposefully lying to us, regardless of party. Full stop.

WHY? A self analysis

Published September 28, 2022 by Nan Mykel

 

 

I read all of The Brain That Changes Itself: Stories of Personal Triumph from the Stories of Personal Triumph From the Frontiers of Brain Science by Norman Doidge earlier, and I have a hypothesis about my own recent brain dysfunction:

My dysfunction is age related and involves current–and I mean current things.  It appears I’ve almost totally lost any understanding of how to work cell phones and adapt to apple and Word Press updates and can’t find things,  but appear to still have access to many of the things I learned in life, including my education and curiosity.  I do remember my mother finding it impossible to work her tv, but then she was on her way to Alzheimer’s.  At 87 I figure I’ve avoided Alzheimers, but surprise myself at my unequal limitations.

Yes, I guess I’ve always known that the brain tends to recede to earlier memories, but this seems extreme.  This is what I’m wondering:  (I do still claim ownership` of an  unconscious)…

MAYBE my unconscious (let’s call her Ethel) refuses to let go of my “what if”  tendencies out of loyalty to myself, and since they are more valued by “the real me,”  I’ve traded cognitive space with everyday low-level functioning.  Sounds like an excuse for brain slippage, doesn’t it?  But it’s a real question, a real puzzler and a possible answer.

I’m still not willing to relinquish the real me for how to work a cell phone.  Or maybe I’m just whistling in the wind….or the dark….

 

 

I’M A POET AND DIDN’T KNOW IT

Published September 28, 2022 by Nan Mykel

 

 

I’m looking for a poem-

Anything that qualifies.

As they pop up I reject them.

But who am I to be so picky?

Only the poet, not the Muse.

 

She–for she’s a she,

I know it–doesn’t

discriminate  but spits them

out one, two, three. She’ll

be the death of me, I know it.

 

Tripping lightly through the words

Stilted language for the birds

Stomping heavy through the verbs

Hidey ho and Camelot.

You name it she’ll write it.

 

Three whole verses, is that enough?

Critics can be kinda tough.

Pillow’s waiting, I must go

Tomorrow’s another day

They say,

and I hope.

Your imagination is a no limit credit card, activate it!

Published September 28, 2022 by Nan Mykel

I. Love. It.

Intellectual Shaman

Quitting,

frightens me

like a flat tire, on the side of a busy freeway

and no jack,

no air pump,

no cell phone,

no people skills

to get to where I need to go.

Everybody, I know

is in such a big hurry

to get to where they need to go

that they don’t notice my predicament

or care

and why should they?

The bum along the freeway

asks me

if I have a drink of water.

He’s dirty

with a full beard

like Robinson Crusoe.

It’s easy to see

he’s not like me.

There are holes in his shoes

He’s been cooked in the sun.

He mumbles to himself.

He learned his ABCs, in elementary school, just like me, didn’t he?

Now he’s stuck on the side of the road.

Is this how it starts, with no empathy?

I can take care of myself,

but I’ll have to walk

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Deaf to Suffering

Published September 28, 2022 by Nan Mykel

There’s so much suffering in the world–it outweighs joy by a longshot.  It seems everywhere we look there is anguish.  It is difficult to admit that the horizon has turned so dark.  I cannot find a hint of a solution.  Are we forced to pretend a return to the oldest fairytale of religion?  I wonder how the Buddhists are faring.  Don’t read the following if you’re not ready to suck it in, from the New Yorker, by Zoha Tunio in Undark:

We have tried, in various ways, to convey to the world the scale of destruction caused by recent floods in Pakistan, because, apparently, a third of the country underwater and thirty-three million lives upended doesn’t cut it. Pakistan’s climate minister has called it Biblical. We have shot and shared videos in which the landmark New Honeymoon Hotel crumbles in the duration of a TikTok. The U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres, who is seventy-three and has called the climate crisis a “code red for humanity,” visited Pakistan and said that he hadn’t seen this scale of climate carnage in his life. Some of us have created maps showing that the areas underwater are larger than Britain. We have shown pictures of dead and starving cattle to appeal to animal-lovers. We have posted videos of puppies being heroically rescued from rushing waters.

Maybe when the world seems to be ending, it needs poets. A poet in Khairpur, in southern Pakistan, one of the worst-affected areas, was asked by a journalist if he had received a tent to shelter his family. He found the idea so improbable that he asked, “Why are you making fun of me? Why would anyone give me a tent?”

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